http://www.swiftwx.com/bulletins.aspx?bull...S54-KMAF-041516 (http://www.swiftwx.com/bulletins.aspx?bulletinid=WFUS54-KMAF-041516)
I hope someone is on it
Aaron
How is this thing even chasable??
Mike
David is taking images.. more info to come
UPDATE: The road was just reopened and they are heading back out
I never realized or heard about the outbreak of April 2, 1982 but I found some stats.
61 tornadoes
30 deaths
433 injuries
4 F4's
29 F2+'s
so wow.....
As of this posting, the area from Stephenville to brownwood looks best, with backed surface winds to almost 90 degrees. This will no doubt change/fluctuate during the day, but if any areas like this can develop along the line, there's a good chance of at least brief tornadoes.....and with energy like what we have tomorrow, a quick tornado doesn't necessarily mean a weak one.
Jeff
P.S. -- this thing isn't going to do anything tornadic if the ETA CAPE forecast is correct... I mean, everything north of DFW has CAPE <500! Are you kidding me?! Yes, this is a dynamic system, but no way are we going to have long-lived, tornadic supercells with CAPEs ~250 J/kg... It's now a necessity that we get some clearing and sfc temps can warm up... otherwise we'll all be chasing weak, strongly forced, and strongly sheared storms moving at 70kts...
Like to stay near WF but hope for some breaks in clouds...
Jeff
Good for you . . we aim to please :wink:
My day will begin around 2am :cry: That's why I dont get as excited about severe wx as those of you who actually get to "enjoy" it.
Jeff
Either way, the A&M stormchasing team will be out in force tomorrow. We're tentatively targeting the I-35 corridor, but frankly we're just going to have to wait until morning to see. Either way, we plan on forecasting a location for initiation and then backing off of that about 60km to the NE, in hopes of picking off one of these storms before they leave us in the dust.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
Since this isnt the 4th weather system you are posting in the wrong place. I changed the topic of that thread.
I am still unsure what tomorrow will actually hold in store. If things continue as the models currently show, it could be a big day. But let's not forget some of yesterday evening's models had everyone ready to jump off the nearest bridge. LOL. And earlier in the day it appeared it would be farther east of where it appears it will be now. So the models have been changing from run to run, going from good to bad to good again. From a chasing standpoint, let's hope the later runs hold. But don't get your hopes too high just yet. And from a safety standpoint, let's hope that any of these strong, long-tracked tornadoes (if they occur) mentioned by the SPC stay out of populated areas.
-George
I have tomorrow off, so I'll be on top of things. My plan right now is to probably hang here at home in the DFW area as long as possible, waiting for a particular storm to catch my attention. With the fast storm motion, intervening muck, and the potential for tornadic supercells all over the place, I don't think being out in the field right at initiation will do much good. Better to stay out ahead, keep an eye on data, and then go after the closest, best-looking storm I can get.
It'll probably make for a short chase, as I'm not going to follow anything into East Texas.
I saw that storm at about 2:30 as you said. It did appear to be trying to organize itself, I thought it was going to be the one that could produce the big one. One that could have been warned with the NWS wording, "tornado emergency," but it reformed with the squall line. Not to say that it would be a good thing though, that is a high populated area.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 1215
PM CST...
AT 1141 AM CST...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED JUST WEST OF BUFFALO
GAP...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. PEOPLE IN EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY FROM ABILENE TO POTOSI TO LAWN
SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW!
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF TAYLOR COUNTY AND WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MERKEL.
LAT...LON 3231 9992 3216 9980 3231 9964 3247 9973
I predict the first MAJOR BUST of the year! Let's not get too crazy here, remember how many tornadoes we have had in North America this week? ONE? TWO? 30 or 40 tornadoes do happen right out of the blue.
Of course, we may have to move off the continent if it does happen this early. Maybe we will see 200 tornadoes a day in May! We should ask some native elders if this ever happened before this early. This is very difficult to comprehend today when it has reached -28 C this morning in Saskatoon! I will certainly be watching Thursday afternoon from my Igloo in the Great Northern Prairies!
bored with snow in saskatoon
Jared
Any way we can change the name of this thread? I suppose we include TX/OK anyways, but stilll...
I'm looking for the 12z model runs, but seems that NWS HQ had severe data problems earlier and things won't be up and running until ~21z . At any rate, I am very concerned about instability and capping. It seems that capping may be weak to begin with. While I'd like more instability to increase volatility, I am concerned that insolation and warmer sfc temps will further weaken the cap, such that we may end up with an uncapped environment (SPC leans this way). I seem to be reminded of April 23rd last year, when we had no cap and experienced several rounds of convection, which mixed the atmosphere and killed sfc-based instability. However, the NWS WFOs all seem onboard for this one... Looks like I may start west of DFW and see what goes from there. Like to stay near WF but hope for some breaks in clouds...
Jeff
I'm going out and I'm still searching for my target. Dunno if there will be a target either. I'm probably going to find the nearest storm moving my way that looks decent and pick it up, because finding a storm tommorow will be pretty tough (similar setup to April 23 last year except for the fact storms will be racing this time)
Horrible chase country, fast storm speeds, and early March. Nothing we haven't tackled before. I'll wait until tonight to start analysis because I hate looking at models anyway, especially when they've still got the better part of a day to change their minds. I'll add anything I come up with here later.
How's that for a pansy, Dan? :twisted:
I think we'll be investing in a tornado shelter this year when all is said and done, living in Oklahoma.
There is a huge risk out for an area in Oklahoma between Norman and Ardmore for tornado potential. Long lived, strong tornadoes.
You can't chase any of this. It'll be moving faster that you on a highway. Choose a secure spot to watch it roll over you, if you must. Maybe on top of the correct type of overpass - with scalable concrete girders underneath.
Nervously,
Karen Rhoden
South Norman, Oklahoma
www.stormskies.com
I'm excited as now the gamble seems all on us: the storms and (probably) some tornadoes will be there, we just have to find them. I get a lot more excited when the chase is ours to blow, not the system's. Will keep posting wishcasts/thoughts as they occur to me. Our earlier money restraint (which I mentioned on the 3/3 thread before) has been remedied, so tomorrow is all out: we go where we have to go, be it OK/AR/TX/LA/beyond the sun......
Mike
http://www.nbc5i.com/weather/2896839/detail.html
watch out for those pop up adverts ...
Correct!
I just wanted to get my 2 cents in on this! Looks like its gonna be a fun day for you guys down south, just be safe Ok?
Jared
Chris
Jeff
The system is coming out very far south and with a slight negative tilt, so winds in the mid troposphere should back to nearly due south in much of the warm sector. This makes the shear profile actually quite marginal, about 40 kts of speed shear and very little directional shear in the 1 to 6 km layer.
The only area where there might be sufficient shear for significant supercells and tornadoes will be in the vicinity of the warm front, but I expect the area north of the front to be socked in with stratus and elevated thunderstorms in the morning. Given south to north storm motion, any storms that develop near or approach the warm front will quickly cross the boundary into the cold air.
I ran a Bunkers et al. storm motion estimate based on the 00Z eta for McAlester valid at 00Z tomorrow night, and right moving supercells are forecast to move out of about 210 degrees at 55 kts!! This is simply not a feasible chasing situation in such terrain. The best one can do, I think, is find a high spot and watch as a storm roars by.
I expect elevated hail-producing supercells to develop in the hill country up into southwest Oklahoma in the morning and spread northeastward. The storms developing near Midland currently should become more organized as they approach the metroplex and southern Oklahoma in the morning, eventually organizing into an intense squall line with embedded circulations.
Mike
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/WW22.20.html
A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.
http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/FWS/...S/FWS.SRMV1.gif (http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/FWS/FWS.SRMV1.gif)
Look at the rotation! :shock:
It is starting to look like a heavy rain event here in Northern IL, SPC has removed extreme northern IL from todays convective outlook, despite the fact that the temperatures could be 60-65 here by tomorrow morning. I'm hoping for some hail/gusty winds, and some brilliant CG's.
GOOD LUCK CHASERS! :D
Please provide links to text products. Also it would be nice to add some analysis with these and not simply paste large blocks of text that most will have seen anyway. Remember, anybody who knows where this site is also knows where the SPC site is.
Here's some things I've been looking at:
The latest RUC demonsrates an impressive dryline punch into central Texas between 18-22Z. This area in co-located with the intersection of
jets and the best instability and could create extremely favorable 0-
1k profiles as winds should back locally there. I would make for
south of the metroplex, maybe fifty miles south of Waxahachie. I
would stay on the interstate if possible today to give myself a
fighting chance in terms of interception speed and vectors.
Skies look to clear as the dry punch works
in; it's already visible on the channel imagery and should work
north to south. However as the midlevel winds begin to veer (good
for directinal profiles) the debris from ongoing convection will
tend to spread more to the east than north and may replace the cloud
cover you lose. Instability is a problem with this setup, but I
think it can be overcome.
You're going to need data or a nowcaster today or don't even
bother. It's a fast-moving grungy mess with LCL's so low that
clouds will scrape the ground, making visual identification of
features difficult. Be careful!! Good luck to all!!
Amos
The San Antonio supercell has strong rotation and is a right-mover.
Radar URL:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p1...0/si.kewx.shtml (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kewx.shtml)
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND FORCING IN
A CORRIDOR FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. DEGREE OF SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COULD RESULT IN
LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLIC AND FAST
MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.
Cyclic? Wow...
WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RACE NEWD INTO
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WIND FIELDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND EVENTS...AND POSSIBLY
SCATTERED TORNADO REPORTS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM AR/MO TO
THE MID MS VALLEY.
Tim
KSPS 041924Z COR 19054G79KT 0SM +TSRA FG OVC018CB 19/17 A2952 RMK AO2
TSB10E12B24RAB24 PRESRR TS OHD MOV NE FRQ LTGICCG RVRNO $=
KFSI 041955Z COR 23034G61KT 1/4SM +TSRA BKN008CB 0VC020 16/14 A2950 RMK PRESFR
FRQ LTGICCG TS OHD-8N MOV N SLPNO WR// WND DATA ESTMD COR 2010=
KDUC 042014Z AUTO 21027G51KT 2 1/2SM +VCTSRA BKN016 OVC022 17/16 A2954 RMK AO2
LTG DSNT ALQS P0019=
Tomorrow isn't going to be easy, by any stretch of the imagination: you're going to have to play chess all day long, staying 2-3 moves ahead of where you'd normally play. As of now, with storm speeds likely to be in the 50+mph catagory, I'm making my initation forecast then calibrating my target from there, in an attempt to be well ahead of the things as they get it going. A day like tomorrow (if current data comes to pass) isn't for the impatient, spoiled, or finicky; only the SDS-raged and tornado freaks like myself will want to swing at this one. A good road at the right time, you could play tag with a cyclic cell for an hour or more, a bad road and the game is over before it starts.
As I said before, when the pressure's on me to screw things up, I can live with that. Had much experience :wink:
Going to be an "interesting" day...
Chris Sokol/KD5ILI
Mobile Weather Concepts
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
THIS ACTIVITY COULD INCLUDE A FEW
STRONG AND/OR LONG LIVED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
:)
http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif
Talk is cheap; prove me wrong. :P :D
I wonder if the SPC'll go with a high risk on later outlooks..
...AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED
AT 1630Z...
A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0403041528.acus11.html
I wonder how far this will spread.
Also, I just talked with my parents who happen to be in San Antonio on a short vacation. Unfortunately my mom came down with the flu and stayed in the hotel room all day today, but was watching the weather situation from the hotel. She reported brief gusty winds and copious amounts of small hail. Outside the hotel window, she watched several nest-building Herrons dig in and take the pummeling, noting that the birds seemed to handle the hail just fine.
*** 1 INJ *** DAMAGE TRACK FROM SOUTH SIDE OF CITY TO I20
ON EAST SIDE. SEVERAL WEAK STRUCTURES AND VEHICLES
DAMAGED. TRACTOR TRAILERS ON INTERSTATE ROLLED INJURING
ONE.
Not heard of any others as of yet.
Kevin
day of the year and a difficult forecast. Carson and I will head west on I-20
toward Mineral Wells just to get out of the DFW area. This would be the middle
of my target area anyway between Wichita Falls and Brownwood. We figure to
race back to Dallas later today and will be in seach of that isolated storm
ahead of the line. Other target areas of interest are northeast Oklahoma/southeast
Kansas ahead of the surface low, but I question the instability there -and
down in the Austin-San Antonio area as the morning RUC shows a nice dry punch
there around 00z. But, I don't want to head down there with a lifting system.
PROS: Lots of upper dynamics, surface moisture, and convergence/turning along
the warm front boundary. CONS: Lots of cloud cover, convection already
firing in west Texas, a fast-lifting system, and a 500 mb jet that is forecasted to
be oriented more southwest-to-northeast. This is more unidirectional than
prior ETA runs. I don't see a big outbreak today, but there should be a few
tornadoes out there. Good luck to those of you who go out. The summary of our chase will be posted under a different header - (3/4/2000 - Chase summary for the southern plains)
Gonig to check things out in the morning before making a final decision on a target, but the DFW area currently looks good for starters.
Good luck and safe travels to all who are chasing tomorrow!!
Angie Norris
I'm stuck in wet, cold, chilly Nebraska while all of you storm/tornado chasers are having a ball in the great state of Texas. Here's a doppler radar of NE Texas right about the time they issued a tornado warning for Red River County, TX : http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p3...r/si.kshv.shtml (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.kshv.shtml)
Can't wait to see all the great shots and hear about all of the adventures you lucky stiffs had in TX!! 8)
Larry
http://kamala.cod.edu/ar/latest.fxus64.KLZK.html
Tornado outbreaks have occurred in this part of the country in January and February. The atmosphere doesn't keep a calendar. With a late Spring airmass in place (73/63 right now at DFW) and a big negative tilt trough crashing in, something's going to happen regardless of what month it is.
Of course, we ARE still a bit cool, so instability will be an issue - especially with clouds and precip getting in the way. But with the sort of shear and dynamics will be dealing with, any discrete storm that goes up is going to rotate. With any localized backing of the surface winds, the tornado threat is going to increase significantly. And if an area gets dryslotted during the morning and early afternoon (and it looks like just that may happen across Central TX), we may see better instabilites than anticipated.
Granted, the whole thing could go squall line right off the bat, but with such a blockbuster system crashing into such a juicy airmass with such good shear, a big event seems all the more likely.
I'm a big pessimist when it comes to these early Spring setups, but even I'm watching this one very closely.
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0421.gif - 15Z RUC 06h (for 21Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0500.gif - 15Z RUC 09h (for 00Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0503.gif - 15Z RUC 12h (for 03Z)
Blue - storm relative helicity; red - convective precip; purple - surface winds
Basically at dusk the RUC has a line from TUL-FTW with isolated cells out ahead in E and SE OK. Will be interesting to see how all this pans out.
Tim
ahh . . . to be a wxcaster in Texas :?
The one thing I am not confident about is the time the storms will trigger and if convection from Wednesday will linger and be a factor. Otherwise, Thursday actually looks better to me than either tomorrow or Wednesday, but be cautioned I am a relative newbie when it comes to forecasting. Nevertheless, I think Thursday could be a nice day for folks who may be chasing in AR.
I think the better chance for something chaseable might be down in the AUS/SAT/CLL area of Texas, where winds will be more veered aloft and forcing will be weaker as the front sags into upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints.
I had some friends chasing near Norman and all they reported was a blown over trash can and some rain. I believe things were slightly out of phase. That said there were still many svr wx reports but, it's still winter! (We had 3 inches of snow in Los Alamos today)
I'd be surprised if anybody has anything near photogenic from the mess today. The only good point was that a large expanse of the Southern Plains received very beneficial rainfall - and this should ensure a pleasantly green springtime.
That, and it was fun to watch a powerful, wound-up system like this blast out to the northeast and do it's thing.
This was our second chase of the year, and not as satisfying as the first. I probably won't write this one up - and won't be writing up on today's Reports here regarding it.
__________________________________
Karen Rhoden
www.stormskies.com
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